John Harrison has recently published an updated AI Viability Report. His first report was published about a year ago and in it he went through the likely electricity production and the resulting cash flows. Using reasonable assumptions, his calculations show that this project has a high probability of being a financial loser.
The main difference in this report and the earlier one (aside from updated Provincial numbers) is he lowered the annual decline in performance due to wear and tear, from2% to 1%. Trying to determine the size of this decline has proven to be an interesting exercise, with a fairly wide range of answers.
While this improves the project’s prospects, it still makes no economic sense for the developer, Algonquin.