Update on AI Viability

John Harrison has just published his updated study of how the project on Amherst Island is not financially viable.  This is the third of these studies, the previous two were also published on this site, here and here.  The overall conclusions remain the same, that given any reasonable set of parameters this project is a loser, even for Algonquin.

This study has one major new area: it estimates the costs of decommissioning and provides an estimate of the scrap value of the wind turbines.  Wind project developers typically claim that the scrap value will cover the decommissioning costs, so the neighbors shouldn’t be worried about having a rusting junk yard at the project’s end.  Harrison’s study doesn’t support this; decommissioning at Amherst will likely cost multiple ten’s of millions of dollars while the scrap value will almost certainly be less than ten million.  I have an earlier post on this topic.

Another noteworthy part of this study is that Harrison now has one more year of observations on the decline of capacity factors with age, and this additional year confirms the earlier observations.  Below is his picture of Ontario’s measured normalized output.  I’ve been posting on this topic for some time over at windfarmrealities.
harrison-decline-130922

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